Coyote Wells, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS65 KPSR 012132
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
232 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorm activity will gradually come to an end
  from west to east by this evening. A Flood Watch remains in
  effect for much of central and eastern Arizona through early
  Monday morning.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon and evening, mostly east of the Colorado River, with
  the main threat being damaging winds.

- Conditions will quickly improve by daybreak Monday and remain
  dry through the week, along with daytime temperatures slowly
  warming closer to, albeit still below, daily normals through
  middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The widespread, long duration rainfall event panned out pretty
much as anticipated with around 0.50"-1.50" of rain accumulating
across the lower deserts and upwards of 1.00-3.00"+ across the
higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix. This has led to a
sizable hydrological response as area rivers and washes are
flowing with some area rivers now reaching flood stage. Several
Flood Warnings are in effect and will likely be extended through
Monday as runoff continues to impact low lying areas. Please
continue to heed any road closures and avoid driving through low
water crossings.

Latest visible satellite imagery and area radars show stratiform
rainfall coming to an end across southcentral AZ with a clearing
line of cirrus now progressing through the Phoenix Metro area. As
skies continue to clear, latest mesoanalysis indicates SB CAPE
values rising to around 500-1000 J/kg across southwest AZ and
western Maricopa County. There is also a sfc frontal boundary
which is beginning to enter SE California and will continue to
push ewd through this evening resulting in a wind shift from
southerly to westerly. Due to clearing over the region, winds are
now becoming gusty as strong winds aloft are mixing down to the
sfc. Expect gusts around 20-30 mph to become common over the next
several hours with a few gusts exceeding 35 mph possible. High-res
model guidance continues to indicate a final line of showers and
even a few thunderstorms developing across southcentral AZ around
00Z. Any storm that does develop will pose more of a flash
flooding risk with higher rain rates anticipated. There will be a
jet maximum passing over the area, leading to effective bulk shear
up to 50 kts. There will be fairly strong 925-850mb winds in
south-central AZ, up around 40-50 kts, and any shower or storm
that develops could mix down these stronger winds to the surface.
There is also a non-zero chance of a brief tornado in south-
central AZ with sfc-1km SRH up to 100- 150 m2/s2. As the line of
showers and storms pushes east of the area later this evening, the
threat of severe weather and flooding will finally come to an
end.

By sunrise Monday, the threat of rain will come to an end and winds
will die down as the trough axis pushes east of the state and much
drier air is ushered in. PWATs are forecast to quickly drop to
around 0.4-0.6" by sunrise Monday. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out
Monday morning in sheltered valley locations, but dry air
entrainment into the surface layer may preclude any formation. As
mentioned already, runoff and elevated flow in many of the major
waterways across south-central AZ is likely to continue through
Monday. Temperatures the next couple of days will remain cool, with
highs around 6-10 degrees below normal, mostly in the upper-60s to
middle-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through the middle of the upcoming work week, following the
departure of this dynamic weekend system, we can expect dry
conditions, and transient upper level ridging, resulting in
temperatures slowly warming closer to seasonal levels (despite
daytime highs likely remaining a few degrees below the daily
normals). By late week, ensembles diverge with respect to another
disturbance possibly moving through the area, but guidance seem
to be trending toward a relatively weak transient upper
low/positively tilted shortwave that is then followed by more
ridging by the end of next weekend. Regardless of the outcome,
fairly benign conditions seem to be the most likely outcome. The
trajectory of the late week system is not favorable for rain
chances, with its residence time too short for better quality
moisture to be pulled into the area, and if it remains an open
wave, its positive tilt does not bode well for providing upper
level support for precipitation. NBM PoPs with the latest forecast
have fallen to 10% or less Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1800Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;

Considerable aviation impacts are expected to continue through
early this evening as persistent SHRA activity promotes sub-VFR
CIGs and VIS, which, at times, will result in MTN obscuration.
The main area of moderate rainfall will migrate east of the
terminals by around 20-21Z this afternoon, but another narrow band
of VCSH/VCTS will push through the region within a window between
21-02Z. S/SSW winds will be common through the afternoon before
they take on more of a W`rly component after sunset. Gusts around
25 kt should be present during the remainder of the daylight
hours, with occasional gusts upwards of 30-35 kt not being out of
the question. Although there still could be a few lingering
showers through around 06Z, conditions should improve dramatically
after the second band of SHRA/TSRA pushes through. W`rly flow
will prevail into Monday morning, but a brief period of an E`rly
component or VRB conditions may be seen within an hour or two of
sunrise.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours.
Other than some breezy W/SW`rly winds this afternoon with gusts
around 25 kt, a much quieter TAF period will be seen compared to
the 18-24 hours. FEW-SCT low level decks generally between 5-8 kft
will linger through this evening before mostly clear skies take
over for the remainder of the forecast window.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across the area today with
the highest rainfall totals expected in the high terrain north
and east of Phoenix. Rainfall will become more isolated this
afternoon and evening, with potential for isolated thunderstorms
as well. Gusty SW winds are also expected this afternoon and
evening, with peak gusts up to 30-40 mph possible in the lower
deserts of south-central AZ to 40-50 mph at the highest elevations
east of Phoenix. Any thunderstorm may also produce locally strong
to severe wind gusts. Minimum humidities will range between
55-80% areawide today and overnight maximum humidities up to
80-100%. Notably drier conditions are expected Monday through the
rest of the week, but minimum humidities will still remain around
30-45% each day as temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal. Winds for much of the rest of this week will return to a
more typical diurnal pattern with light speeds and modest
afternoon upslope gustiness.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ534-537>563.

CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict/Salerno
LONG TERM...Benedict/Whittock
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict